Salmon & Gold: Bristol Bay And The Pebble Project

“A mine is a hole in the ground owned by a liar.”
—attributed to Mark Twain 

 

Thar’s gold in that thar tundra. What tundra you ask? The rolling tundra 200 miles southwest of Anchorage in the watershed of Bristol Bay, Alaska. Within this region, 1000 feet above sea level is Alaska’s largest freshwater lake, Lake Iliamna. Twenty miles north of the lake is the site of the proposed Pebble Mine Project. The Iliamna is also the headwaters of the Kvichak River. The Kvichak flows southwest about 50 miles to Kvichak Bay, an arm of Bristol Bay - home to all five salmon species native to North America - Chinook (king), sockeye, coho, chum and pink. Boasting the largest run of sockeye salmon in the world, Bristol Bay salmon exemplifies sustainability in Nature. 

Bristol Bay supplies almost half the world’s sockeye salmon. One of the main factors leading to the success of this fishery is the fact that the watershed is largely untouched and pristine. As of August 2, this year’s run totaled 56.3 million sockeye. Fishermen landed approximately 43 million fish. The Kvichak run was counted to be 17.5 million sockeye with a catch of 11.4 million and escapement of 6.1 million fish. Escapement ensures plenty of fish for spawning and renewal / regeneration of the species. 

Pebble may be the world’s largest undeveloped copper-gold-molybdenum-silver resource in the world. Using 2013 estimates of recoverable metals and July 14, 2014 metal spot prices, the current market value of the Pebble deposit is greater than $300 billion. This breaks down to roughly $179 billion in copper, $43 billion in molybdenum, and $87 billion in gold. Add to that, another $559 million from the estimated 32 million ounces of silver with a current trading value of $17.86 an ounce, and you are looking at some real money! 

Salmon and people aren’t the only inhabitants of the Bristol Bay watershed. It provides vital habitat for 29 fish species, more than 190 bird species, and more than 40 terrestrial animals. Bald eagles, moose, brown bears, rainbow trout, freshwater seals, pacific walrus, north pacific right whales and beluga whales all live in the region. It is the most productive salmon ecosystem in North America. There are no salmon hatcheries augmenting the salmon population. Bristol Bay salmon are 100% wild. 
 

“I am not opposed to mining but it is the wrong mine for the wrong place.” - Ted Stevens. AK Senator 1968-2009 

The proposed hole in the ground of the Pebble Project could grow to be two miles wide and approximately three-quarters of a mile deep, covering an area larger than Manhattan. The EPA’s own scientific study concludes the Pebble Project will destroy 94 miles of salmon streams and 5,350 acres of wetlands, lakes and ponds. Overall, the 

EPA concluded that mining the headwaters of the Bristol Bay river systems could cause irreparable harm to the valuable Bristol Bay fishery, wildlife, and people. 

“Based on what I know at this point, I’m not in favor of Pebble.” - Bill Walker, Governor of Alaska 2014-2018 

The Pebble Limited Partnership is currently 100% owned by The Northern Dynasty Partnership, a subsidiary of the Canadian company, Northern Dynasty LTD. Its website states that it plans to “Repartner: Engage a partner with the financial depth to permit, build and operate a world-class mine at Pebble.”Repartner, indeed! This project has been a boondoggle from Day One. Three of the world's largest mining companies invested in either Northern Dynasty or Pebble Limited Partnership. One by one they abandoned the project. 

Mitsubishi Corporation sold its 9.1% interest in Northern Dynasty Minerals in 2011. Between 2007 and 2013, London based Anglo American, spent over half a billion dollars on the project. In December 2013, it walked away with a return of nothing. Between 2006 and 2007, the Rio Tinto Group invested 181 million dollars. In April 2014, it gifted its shares, to two Alaskan charitable foundations. By then those shares were worth only 18 million dollars, a 90% drop in value. Northern Dynasty has only one asset, Pebble, and consequently no cash flow. It must rely on new investment to stay afloat. 

“Wrong mine, wrong place, too big. Too many potential longterm impacts to a fishery that is pretty critical to that area, but also to Alaska (and) to world markets.- Mark Begich, AK Senator 2009-2015 

The Bristol Bay salmon fishery has supported subsistence fishing by native Alaskans for thousands of years. Commercial harvests began in 1883 and have operated continuously for more than 120 years. It is the world’s most valuable wild salmon fishery, contributing well over $1 billion in value and about 10,000 jobs to the United every year. 

Believe it or not, in 2018, even Scott Pruitt, former secretary of the Interior spoke out against the Pebble project: “Until we know the full extent of that risk, those natural resources and world-class fisheries deserve the utmost protection.” 

After a one-on-one meeting with the current Alaska governor Mike Dunleavy, Donald Trump personally intervened to lift the EPA restrictions blocking the Pebble permit. If built as currently planned, Pebble Mine will generate an estimated 10 billion tons of mining waste, much of it toxic. The plan is to contain the waste in two artificial lakes behind two earthen dams. The largest of these dams will be 740 ft tall and 4.3 miles long. That’s higher than Hoover Dam and almost twice as long as China’s Three Gorges Dam. 

Knight-Piesold designed the tailings dam for Pebble Mine, stating “Modern dam design technologies are based on proven scientific/engineering principles, and there is no basis for asserting that they will not stand the test of time.” The worst mining disaster in Canada’s history occurred in 2012, when the earthen dam at the Mount Polley copper and gold mine in British Columbia was breached, spilling billions of gallons of mining waste. Please recall, these impoundments are meant to last for perpetuity. The one at Mount Polley lasted a scant seventeen years. And yes, it was designed by Knight-Piesold. 
 

“I can’t imagine a worse location for a mine of this type unless it was in my kitchen.” - Jay Hammond, Governor of AK 1974-1982 

This is a very clear choice. Stand for Bristol Bay salmon, sustainability, regeneration and a self-perpetuating economy. Or, stand for a short-term extraction economy characterized by externalization of environmental costs in the pursuit of wealth. We can eat salmon. We can’t eat money or metal.

Extinction is forever and perpetuity lasts for a very long time.